Meditations and Learnings

Meditations and Learnings

Adopting a Mindset of Constructive Paranoia

Jared Diamond purports to have adopted a philosophy of “constructive paranoia”. It is an appreciation for the compounding of small risks. From the 30,000 foot view, it makes a lot of sense. I will relate this to a scarcely known measure of risk; a micromort. If an action has a probability that 1 in a 1,000,000 times it will kill you, it increases your chance of death by one micromort.

Every 17 miles of walking increases death risk by roughly one micromort. The same is true of driving 230 miles in a car, a little more than a day of skiing, or taking a tab of ecstasy.

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