Meditations and Learnings

Meditations and Learnings

Beware Reliance on Forecasts



Forecasts can be divided into those that encourage the user to think more, and those that ease mindless following.
A lady driving through Death Valley with her younger son ignored all environmental signs not to continue down the path recommended by her GPS. A man discovered her only after five days of being trapped in a desert. Her infant son had died.
Another example; Wall Street had placed blind faith in the Gaussian copula function assuming it could never be wrong. The result was the 2008 financial crisis and the loss of $11 trillion.