Meditations and Learnings

Meditations and Learnings

Plan Continuation Bias



A fallacy related to that of sunk costs. This is the inability of people to reassess a plan in light of more recent / relevant data. Persisting in a failing plan can be most easily examined in the plotting of courses for ships (a serious example being the Torrey Canyon oil spill in which the Captain ignored changing conditions and carried on with the increasingly more risky route). It is also seen in air crashes; an analysis of 279 aircraft approach or landing accidents found this bias made up for 11% of the cases. Another analysis of 76 accidents concluded it was a contributory factor in 42% of the cases.