Meditations and Learnings

Meditations and Learnings

Ludic Fallacy

This is the misuse of games to model real-life situations. It is a rare form of observation in that we know its author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and its source, his 2007 masterpiece The Black Swan.

The example that I’ve found best communicates its use is the following:

Steven is a science and logic driven thinker.
Michael navigates the world using his wits and intuition.

They are both told that a fair coin has been flipped 99 times and each had been heads. They are then asked what is the probability of the next throw also being heads?

Steven, being logical, points out it is still 50/50 because that is the law of probabilities.
Michael, living in the real world, calls bullshit on the idea an actually fair coin can come up heads 99 times in a row and refuses to play these stupid games.

Sometimes logic can get in the way of rational thinking. It can blind us to what even a 5 year old might notice.